New Seat Details - Amber Valley

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Amber Valley been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	31,836	59.7%
LAB	18,597	34.9%
LIB	1,663	3.1%
Green	818	1.5%
OTH	409	0.8%
CON Majority	13,239	24.8%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Amber Valley: Map

List of old seats forming part of Amber Valley

Old seat: Amber Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Amber Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Amber Valley				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Amber Valley	Alfreton	5,630	Bolsover	2,013	1,924	102	0	75	0	0	40	4,154
Amber Valley	Codnor and Waingroves	3,599	Amber Valley	1,329	1,056	52	0	21	0	0	69	2,527
Amber Valley	Heage and Ambergate	3,753	Amber Valley	1,623	811	58	0	54	0	0	31	2,577
Amber Valley	Heanor and Loscoe	3,790	Amber Valley	1,446	1,198	75	0	26	0	0	28	2,773
Amber Valley	Heanor East	4,249	Amber Valley	1,565	1,361	74	0	28	0	0	33	3,061
Amber Valley	Heanor West	4,312	Amber Valley	1,645	1,333	109	0	34	0	0	30	3,151
Amber Valley	Ironville and Riddings	4,154	Amber Valley	1,542	1,350	47	0	23	0	0	28	2,990
Amber Valley	Kilburn, Denby and Holbrook	5,875	Amber Valley	2,690	1,100	97	0	85	0	0	42	4,014
Amber Valley	Langley Mill and Aldercar	3,698	Amber Valley	1,409	1,277	67	0	28	0	0	27	2,808
Amber Valley	Ripley	6,553	Amber Valley	2,646	1,664	108	0	89	0	0	47	4,554
Amber Valley	Ripley and Marehay	4,288	Amber Valley	1,813	1,130	70	0	61	0	0	35	3,109
Amber Valley	Shipley Park, Horsley and Horsley Woodhouse	4,407	Amber Valley	2,041	780	87	0	22	0	0	27	2,957
Amber Valley	Somercotes	4,187	Bolsover	1,514	1,661	69	0	30	0	0	32	3,306
Amber Valley	Swanwick	4,172	Bolsover	1,746	721	61	0	51	0	0	69	2,648
Amber Valley	Wingfield	1,792	Amber Valley	882	239	23	0	21	0	0	12	1,177
	Total	64,459		25,904	17,605	1,099	0	648	0	0	550	45,806

The full details of these calculations are given on the Amber Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Derbyshire Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Derbyshire Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Derbyshire Mid				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Amber Valley	Belper Central	4,138	Derbyshire Dales	1,615	1,311	90	0	135	0	0	0	3,151
Amber Valley	Belper East	4,483	Derbyshire Dales	1,973	1,431	88	0	142	0	0	0	3,634
Amber Valley	Belper North	3,767	Derbyshire Dales	1,631	1,055	76	0	133	0	0	0	2,895
Amber Valley	Belper South	4,164	Derbyshire Dales	1,692	1,380	89	0	145	0	0	0	3,306
Amber Valley	Duffield	3,753	Amber Valley	1,990	785	143	0	110	0	0	0	3,028
Amber Valley	Kilburn, Denby and Holbrook	69	Amber Valley	31	20	2	0	2	0	0	0	55
Derby	Allestree	11,220	Amber Valley	5,078	2,416	540	0	128	0	0	0	8,162
Derby	Oakwood	10,018	Derby East	4,576	2,923	338	0	114	0	0	0	7,951
Derby	Spondon	10,016	Derby East	4,210	2,861	236	0	114	0	0	0	7,421
Erewash	Little Eaton and Stanley	3,523	Amber Valley	1,704	806	45	0	36	0	0	0	2,591
Erewash	Ockbrook and Borrowash	5,674	Erewash	2,611	1,638	81	0	59	0	0	0	4,389
Erewash	West Hallam and Dale Abbey	5,129	Amber Valley	2,402	1,271	66	0	50	0	0	0	3,789
	Total	65,954		29,513	17,897	1,794	0	1,168	0	0	0	50,372

The full details of these calculations are given on the Derbyshire Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Amber Valley

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Amber Valley
Amber Valley	Codnor and Waingroves	3,754	Amber Valley	1,329	1,056	52	0	21	0	0	69	2,527
Amber Valley	Duffield	4,055	Derbyshire Mid	1,990	785	143	0	110	0	0	0	3,028
Amber Valley	Heage and Ambergate	3,829	Amber Valley	1,623	811	58	0	54	0	0	31	2,577
Amber Valley	Heanor and Loscoe	4,122	Amber Valley	1,446	1,198	75	0	26	0	0	28	2,773
Amber Valley	Heanor East	4,549	Amber Valley	1,565	1,361	74	0	28	0	0	33	3,061
Amber Valley	Heanor West	4,682	Amber Valley	1,645	1,333	109	0	34	0	0	30	3,151
Amber Valley	Ironville and Riddings	4,442	Amber Valley	1,542	1,350	47	0	23	0	0	28	2,990
Amber Valley	Kilburn, Denby and Holbrook	5,965	Amber Valley	2,690	1,100	97	0	85	0	0	42	4,014
Amber Valley	Kilburn, Denby and Holbrook	72	Derbyshire Mid	31	20	2	0	2	0	0	0	55
Amber Valley	Langley Mill and Aldercar	4,172	Amber Valley	1,409	1,277	67	0	28	0	0	27	2,808
Amber Valley	Ripley	6,766	Amber Valley	2,646	1,664	108	0	89	0	0	47	4,554
Amber Valley	Ripley and Marehay	4,621	Amber Valley	1,813	1,130	70	0	61	0	0	35	3,109
Amber Valley	Shipley Park, Horsley and Horsley Woodhouse	4,394	Amber Valley	2,041	780	87	0	22	0	0	27	2,957
Amber Valley	Wingfield	1,749	Amber Valley	882	239	23	0	21	0	0	12	1,177
Derby	Allestree	10,933	Derbyshire Mid	5,078	2,416	540	0	128	0	0	0	8,162
Erewash	Little Eaton and Stanley	3,471	Derbyshire Mid	1,704	806	45	0	36	0	0	0	2,591
Erewash	West Hallam and Dale Abbey	5,073	Derbyshire Mid	2,402	1,271	66	0	50	0	0	0	3,789
	Total	76,649		31,836	18,597	1,663	0	818	0	0	409	53,323

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Amber Valley. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Nigel Mills (CON)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	76,649
Turnout:	69.6%

Amber Valley: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Amber Valley: Overview

Introduction